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Criminal Justice > Criminal Psychology > Criminal Risk Assessment > Static-2002 and Static-2002r

Static-2002 and Static-2002r




The Static-2002 and its revised version, the Static2002R, are risk assessment tools that are used to predict sexual recidivism. Both versions were created by Karl Hanson and David Thornton as improvements on the Static-99 and the Static-99R risk assessment tools. This article begins by providing some background information and then discusses the purposes, evaluation, and use of the Static-2002 and the Static-2002R.




Background

In the field of risk assessment, research has consistently demonstrated that risk assessments that are structured have increased accuracy when compared to unstructured professional opinion or clinical judgment. This being said, within the field, there is a lack of consensus as to how known predictive factors should be structured. One method for structuring risk factors in assessment is known as the actuarial method. Actuarial risk tools are regularly used in forensic psychology in both applied and research settings. Such tools provide a clinician or researcher with an explicit algorithm for combining known risk factors that have been shown to be predictive of recidivism. Such tools provide an empirically validated method of combining risk items into an overall score. The overall score derived provides users with a way to meaningfully compare the person currently assessed with known samples of offenders.

As noted earlier, Hanson and Thornton created Static-2002 with the primary goal of improving the Static-99. They designed the Static-2002 to be similar to the Static-99 in that it was intended to be a brief actuarial measure that was predictive of sexual recidivism while making use of information common to many forensic assessors. Another goal was to address the perceived weaknesses of the Static-99. The Static-99 was created by merging two previously existing scales (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism and Structured Anchored Clinical Judgment), which led to two separate sets of item definitions being merged into the Static-99. In designing the Static-2002, Hanson and Thornton selected the definitions with the strongest support in pilot studies and structured the items into subscales for the purpose of interpretation. With these changes, it was also hoped that the Static-2002 would be more accurate than the Static-99 at predicting sexual and violent recidivism.

Following the publication of the Static-99 and the Static-2002, given the data that criminal behavior generally declines with age, it was deemed to be empirically appropriate to adjust the Static-99 and the Static-2002 to statistically factor age of release into these assessment tools. Sequentially, there was a revision of both the Static-99 and the Static-2002, and these tools became known as the Static-99R and the Static-2002R.

The Static-2002R is a 14-item actuarial measure designed to predict both sexual and violent recidivism in sexual offenders. The items of the Static-2002R are identical to the Static-2002 with the exception of updated age weights. When compared to the Static-99, the Static-2002R added or altered some items, organized items into meaningful subscales with the goal of assisting interpretation, and is believed to have more standardization in coding rules. The Static-2002R items are grouped into five main subscales: Age at Release, Persistence of Sex Offending, Sexual Deviance, Relationship to Victims, and General Criminality. The total score of the Static-2002R ranges from −2 to 13. The total score of the Static-2002R can be used to place offenders in one of five risk categories: very low (−2 to –1), below average (0–1), average (2–4), above average (5–6), and well above average (7+). The items of the Static-2002R are as follows: (1) age at release, (2) prior sentencing occasions for sexual offences, (3) any juvenile arrest for a sexual offence and convicted as an adult for a separate sexual offence, (4) rate of sexual offending, (5) any sentencing occasion for noncontact sex offences, (6) any male victim, (7) young, unrelated victims, (8) any unrelated victims, (9) any stranger victim, (10) any prior involvement with the criminal justice system, (11) prior sentencing occasions for anything, (12) any community supervision violation, (13) years free prior to index sex offence, and (14) any prior nonsexual violence sentencing occasion.

Purpose and Evaluation of the Static-2002 and the Static-2002R

Most predictive research on the Static-2002 and the Static-2002R has focused on the ability of these measures to distinguish offenders on their risk of recidivism. Typically, predictive accuracy is presented statistically using correlation c oefficients, areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC), or standardized mean differences (Cohen’s d). Correlation coefficients quantify the statistical strength and direction of the relationship between two or more values. A receiver operating characteristic curve is a graphical curve created by plotting the true positive rate (sensitivity) against the false-positive rate (1—specificity) and sequentially evaluating the ability of an instrument to discriminate a binary dependent variable (i.e., in this case recidivism). AUC values range from 0 to 1. A score of 1 means that the test in question is perfect in its predictive and/or diagnostic abilities. An AUC value of 0.5 means that a predictive or diagnostic tool worked in a fashion that was equivalent to chance. Cohen’s d measures the difference between two means divided by a standard deviation for the data. All of these statistics describe the extent to which the recidivists are different from the nonrecidivists; however, these statistics do not provide absolute recidivism rates. It is important to note that absolute recidivism rates (i.e., the percentage of individuals who reoffend) differ in the literature from sample to sample and that relative risk measures (e.g., risk ratios or percentiles, which compare the level of risk of one offender, to that of other offenders) are considerably more stable.

Use of the Static-2002 and the Static-2002R

The Static-2002 and the Static-2002R can be used by a wide range of evaluators in terms of educational or training background. The instrument developers recommend that users receive specific training in the Static-2002R and related measures (i.e., the Static-99 and STABLE 2007) prior to clinical use.

The Static-2002 and the Static-2002R were designed to be used with male sexual offenders who have been convicted of at least one sexual offence after their 18th birthday. The Static-2002 and the Static-2002R should not be used with offenders who have abstained from violent offending while in the community for a period of 8 years or more since release from their most recent sexual offence. The measures are not recommended when the only sexual infraction involved consenting sexual activity with a similar-age peer. The measures should not be used for offenders whose only sexual offence is one of the following: consenting sex with adults in public places; child pornography offences (unless the offender was involved in manufacturing the child pornography); indecent behavior with no sexual motive; failing to inform a sexual partner of HIV positive status; prostitution, pimping, or pandering (including profiting from child prostitution); bigamy; or the sale of sexually explicit materials to minors (with an economic motive). The Static-2002R can be used with developmentally delayed offenders, those with symptoms or diagnoses of major mental health issues, and with Canadian Aboriginal offenders.

The Static-2002 and the Static-2002R make use of information commonly available to practitioners in forensics. In particular, there are three basic types of information necessary to score the Static-2002R: offender demographic information, an official criminal record, and victim information. Self-reported information is not acceptable in scoring the 9 items relating to an offender’s official criminal record except in rare circumstances (e.g., immigrants, refugees from developing countries). Moreover, the evaluator must come to the conclusion that the self-reported information is indeed credible. Despite the noted limitation of self-report, self-reported information can be used to supplement official records. Information derived solely from polygraph sources should not be used to score the Static-2002R unless the information can be corroborated by outside sources. It is possible to score the Static-2002R even if an assessor is missing certain items.

The Static-2002 and the Static-2002R were intended to assess theoretically meaningful characteristics thought to be important to understanding recidivism risk (persistence of sexual offending, deviant sexual interests, general criminality). This being said, experts often disagree about the causal nature of psychological constructs while agreeing that there is practical utility with existing measures, such as the Static-2002R for applied decision-making.

The Static-99 is the most researched of all risk assessment tools for sex offenders, with moderate predictive accuracy (on average). The Static-2002R has a moderate relationship with sexual recidivism. Meta-analysis has found that the Static-2002R has consistently higher AUC areas (i.e., predictive accuracy) than the Static-99 for sexual, violent, and general recidivism. The Static-2002 and the Static-2002R are noted to predict sexual, violent, and any general recidivism as well as other actuarial risk tools typically used with sexual offenders. In terms of clinical use, the Static-99 is the most widely used measure for assessing risk of sexual recidivism. In a 2009 meta-analysis, there were 63 validation studies of the Static-99 (about twice the number of studies of the next most researched scale). Moreover, the Static-99 and the Static-99 have been the subject of relatively large field and cohort studies. The Static-99 and the Static-2002 have been validated for use internationally and with various ethnic groups.

References:

  1. Babchishin, K. M., Hanson, R. K., & Helmus, L. (2011). The RRASOR, Static-99R, and Static-2002R all add incrementally to the prediction of recidivism among sex offenders. Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety Canada.
  2. Boccaccini, M. T., Rice, A. K., Helmus, L. M., Murrie, D. C., & Harris, P. B. (2017). Field validity of Static99/R scores in a statewide sample of 34,687 convicted sexual offenders. Psychological Assessment, 29(6), 611–623. doi:10.1037/pas0000377
  3. Chevalier, C. S., Boccaccini, M. T., Murrie, D. C., & Varela, J. G. (2015). Static-99R reporting practices in sexually violent predator cases: Does norm selection reflect adversarial allegiance? Law and Human Behavior, 39, 209–218. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000114
  4. Haag, A. M. (2006). Do psychological interventions impact on actuarial measures: An analysis of the predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-2002 on a re-conviction measure of sexual recidivism (Doctoral dissertation). ProQuest Information & Learning.
  5. Hanson, K., Helmus, L., & Thornton, D. (2010). Predicting recidivism amongst sexual offenders: A multi-site study of Static-2002. Law and Human Behavior, 34,198–221. doi:10.1007/ s10979-009-9180-1
  6. Hanson, R. K., & Morton-Bourgon, K. E. (2009). The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies. Psychological Assessment, 21, 1–21. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0014421
  7. Hanson, R. K., Sheahan, C. L., & VanZuylen, H. (2013). Static-99 and RRASOR predict recidivism among developmentally delayed sexual offenders: A cumulative meta-analysis. Sexual Offender Treatment, 8(1), 1–14.
  8. Hanson, R. K., Thornton, D., Helmus, L.-M., & Babchishin, K. M. (2016). What sexual recidivism rates are associated with Static-99R and Static-2002R scores? Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 28(3), 218–252. Retrieved from http://doi.org/10.1177/1079063215574710
  9. Helmus, L., Hanson, R. K., Thornton, D., Babchishin, K. M., & Harris, A. J. R. (2012). Absolute recidivism rates predicted by Static-99R and Static-2002R sex offender risk assessment tools vary across samples: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 39(9), 1148–1171. Retrieved from http://doi.org/10.1177/0093854812443648
  10. Neal, T. M. S., & Grisso, T. (2014). Assessment practices and expert judgment methods in forensic psychology and psychiatry: An international snapshot. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 41, 1406–1421. Retrieved from http:// dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854814548449